How the Pandemic Will End

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How the Pandemic Will End

Post by koimaster » March 26th 2020, 10:44pm

Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable. In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his TED Talk. In 2018, I wrote a story for The Atlantic arguing that America was not ready for the pandemic that would eventually come. In October, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security war-gamed what might happen if a new coronavirus swept the globe. And then one did. Hypotheticals became reality. “What if?” became “Now what?”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... vsTnCqUV84
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by conjurer » March 26th 2020, 11:12pm

It's been written that Ebola may well have been endemic in Africa for generations, particularly in small villages where people subsisted on bushmeat for their daily protein. It was the custom in these villages where the infected were taken to the furthest hut, attended by only one other person (who was customarily shunned by the rest of the village), until they perished or recovered. It was because of this that the plague would be stunted--instead of burning through first-world caregivers, who would infect others in their families.

Now, it's come full circle. Elderly Italians are made to die alone, perhaps doped with morphine, so their ventilator could be used for somebody else, more likely to survive. I fear that the same thing is coming to NYC. Americans--Americans--are going to die alone, away from their loved ones, gasping for breath. Perhaps a nurse or doctor will come along, and give them an injection of morphine, so their bitter end won't be so painful.

How the fuck has it come to this?
My little brain can't even comprehend how deep that is.

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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by bbattle » March 27th 2020, 3:51am

People make lots of predictions; they hope you only remember the ones that turn out correct. If we had a watch for every pandemic wanna be that has come and gone, we wouldn't be able to hold our arms up. And that is just for the ones that have come from China. Books and movies have been made for decades about global pandemics wiping out society. We're a long ways from that but people keep on acting like the whole country is about to die when the actual facts are more on the lines of: we're basically in the middle of a bad flu season.

The cost of being prepared for a pandemic like this would be astronomical; as people are finding out now. NYC has had years and years to prepare for a pandemic but they didn't. Nobody did. Who wants to stockpile stuff and pay to store it for years, perhaps decades, just in case? And ppe has a shelf life, gloves break down, ventilators would have to be serviced just to be ready.

What Americans need is to find common sense and use it. But far too many would rather sit on their asses and wait for the Big Brother to tell them what to do. Whenever a "crisis" comes along, there are people braying about the need for more Federal control, more top down governance, more relinquishing of rights. On the other hand, governors will sure take all the Federal tax money they can get but they don't want to relinquish any of their power. Feds are throwing TRILLIONS around but it's not enough. Politicians are already licking their lips over the prospect of spending even more. Most of the money being earmarked for shit that has nothing to do with containing the virus which is typical of these gargantuan piles of pork.

The pandemic will end long before the politicians want it to end. There will be cargo ships loaded with new and slightly used ventilators headed for Third World countries. Pallets of surgical masks and nitrile gloves in warehouses; waiting to sold on eBay for pennies on the dollar. Coronavirus tattoos and Coronavirus inspired Invicta watches(they'll be 65mm, with a storage space for toilet paper) will be the rage. People will head to the beach despite predictions of 50 hurricanes expected to hit the coasts.

A study will conclude that coronavirus was caused by climate change.
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by TemerityB » March 28th 2020, 4:00pm

I offer you this, and that's all I'm gonna say.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ent-2020-3
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by bbattle » Yesterday, 6:19am

720 cases, 3 deaths in Alabama due to coronavirus.

That is a 0.42% death rate, assuming there are no unknown infections.

With a population of 4,888,000, that puts the infection rate at 0.0147%

So what have they done? Alabama has closed all liquor stores, claiming they are non esssential.

WTF?

We have more than 3 Bubbas getting killed over Auburn vs. Alabama fights each week. The number of people dying because they are out of Miller Lite will be enormous.

Good thing I live close to a state line.
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by 3Flushes » Yesterday, 9:05am

bbattle wrote:
Yesterday, 6:19am
720 cases, 3 deaths in Alabama due to coronavirus.

That is a 0.42% death rate, assuming there are no unknown infections.

With a population of 4,888,000, that puts the infection rate at 0.0147%

So what have they done? Alabama has closed all liquor stores, claiming they are non esssential.

WTF?

We have more than 3 Bubbas getting killed over Auburn vs. Alabama fights each week. The number of people dying because they are out of Miller Lite will be enormous.

Good thing I live close to a state line.
If the numbers are indeed that low, proly be good to keep it that way, all life is precious, after all.
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by labman » Yesterday, 10:03am

3Flushes wrote:
Yesterday, 9:05am
bbattle wrote:
Yesterday, 6:19am
720 cases, 3 deaths in Alabama due to coronavirus.

That is a 0.42% death rate, assuming there are no unknown infections.

With a population of 4,888,000, that puts the infection rate at 0.0147%

So what have they done? Alabama has closed all liquor stores, claiming they are non esssential.

WTF?

We have more than 3 Bubbas getting killed over Auburn vs. Alabama fights each week. The number of people dying because they are out of Miller Lite will be enormous.

Good thing I live close to a state line.
If the numbers are indeed that low, proly be good to keep it that way, all life is precious, after all.
Unfortunately, the real numbers, realistically, are not that low.

https://covidtracking.com/data/#AL

Based on the number of test Al has performed to date, 4944 total test (760 positive/4184 negative) on a population of 4,888,000 they have tested 0.1011% of their population.

The largest threat of this SARS-CoV-2 virus is that it is mainly spread by asymptomatic carries and has a R0 (r naught number) of 2-4, meaning each infected person infects two to four people, who in turn infect two to four people, etc.

By testing only symptomatic people we are missing the majority of the carriers.

The availability of testing in the US is a disgrace.

Having said that, :cheers: :fdfd: liquor stores are ABSOLUTELY an ESSENTIAL business and should remain open IMO
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by bbattle » Yesterday, 11:54am

Jack Daniels is just up the road and they are making hand sanitizer. Having made mouth sanitizer for many years, this new product ought to be a cinch. The little town of Lynchburg has a tourist trap downtown where you can buy anything with the Jack Daniels logo on it. I'm sure they will continue to offer up a special JD hand sanitizer even after this crisis is over.

But how to explain to the state trooper that it is your hands he is smelling, not your breath.

Been out walking today; lots of other walkers and bike riders, too. The Target shopping center was a ghost town but the food places are all doing curbside. Also a hair product store was doing curbside; a man was getting Brown 6A for his wife(yeah, sure buddy). Target was open, the employees were all wearing gloves. I hope they've received adequate training on how to wear, remove and dispose of them. They were sanitizing everything. The store was quiet; thankfully, nobody was yakking on their cell phone like they usually do. There was a bit of paper towels and toilet paper but I didn't need any so moved on. Not surprisingly, the vegan offerings were fully stocked. Not even coronysteria will make normal people buy that stuff( kidding).

Since I was walking, I did not choose this time to buy wine or beer. I did some recon and they do have a good supply of red wine and decent beer so I may have to drive back down there.
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Re: How the Pandemic Will End

Post by 3Flushes » Yesterday, 2:55pm

labman wrote:
Yesterday, 10:03am
3Flushes wrote:
Yesterday, 9:05am
bbattle wrote:
Yesterday, 6:19am
720 cases, 3 deaths in Alabama due to coronavirus.

That is a 0.42% death rate, assuming there are no unknown infections.

With a population of 4,888,000, that puts the infection rate at 0.0147%

So what have they done? Alabama has closed all liquor stores, claiming they are non esssential.

WTF?

We have more than 3 Bubbas getting killed over Auburn vs. Alabama fights each week. The number of people dying because they are out of Miller Lite will be enormous.

Good thing I live close to a state line.
If the numbers are indeed that low, proly be good to keep it that way, all life is precious, after all.
Unfortunately, the real numbers, realistically, are not that low.

https://covidtracking.com/data/#AL

Based on the number of test Al has performed to date, 4944 total test (760 positive/4184 negative) on a population of 4,888,000 they have tested 0.1011% of their population.

The largest threat of this SARS-CoV-2 virus is that it is mainly spread by asymptomatic carries and has a R0 (r naught number) of 2-4, meaning each infected person infects two to four people, who in turn infect two to four people, etc.

By testing only symptomatic people we are missing the majority of the carriers.

The availability of testing in the US is a disgrace.

Having said that, :cheers: :fdfd: liquor stores are ABSOLUTELY an ESSENTIAL business and should remain open IMO
Figured it was too good to be true.

Folks wind up wondering around with a false sense of security, false hope, that is, the only thing more contagious than the virus itself as folks are looking for something to hold onto. The pieces of shit who exploit hope by misrepresenting numbers and risk are the same psychopaths of the ilk of Jim Baker's silver solution cure, to the Rudi Giuliani's, whose tweet making false claims and a link for a drug with good effect on Coronavirus / COVID was removed today, and the burgeoning others.

Hope doesn't have to be a tradeoff for protecting ourselves by being informed with the truth, and then hoping, praying, keeping the faith, keepin' on with the keepin' on or how ever the fuck you reach out to the universe for spiritual first aid ---and anyone who tells you different is a predatory, irrelevant, empty fool, looking to make a fool out of you.

Edit: Having said that, the liquor stores should stay open. The dispensaries are open here, many with speedy outdoor pick-up- frankly quite innovative - idk why liquor stores couldn't do the same- p-o-p ID checks etc, no problem.

The order and payment are made in advance online, confirmation is sent when ready for pick up (30 minutes or less), show up, have ID scanned, and off you go, the place I bought a bit while my last batch dries had ropes set off with a mark every 7 feet, because you can't be too careful.
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