Watchlords

I'm talking about the hapless bastard on the left. Here's a great idea: I'll take a selfie with the worst traitor to Mother Russia since Leon Trotsky! What could possibly go wrong??

Priggo is one special arse, but he is among the few who has spoken the truth about how the Russian people and soldiers are getting screwed by their incompetent and corrupt regime. Of course he was a part of that scheme himself in many years...
But You are right, this was, well, a one (last) in a lifetime shot with a celebrity.

How long before he has an "accident" on the way to church?

Or does he end up a warlord in Africa and we get Apocalypse Now II?

Dumbest guy in Russia? That would be Vladymir Putin.

He's the Russian Seth Rich. RIP

Russia's gain, the people of Belarus's loss.

At the time the selfie was taken it’s possible he thought he was getting a picture with the next Russian president. It wouldn’t be the worst assumption made in the last year and a half.

Between selfie dude and Surovikin I’m not sure who I would rather be.

Hawk wrote: ↑

June 29th 2023, 7:20am

At the time the selfie was taken it’s possible he thought he was getting a picture with the next Russian president. It wouldn’t be the worst assumption made in the last year and a half.

Between selfie dude and Surovikin I’m not sure who I would rather be.

Still may be a reasonable assumption - the only problem with getting rid of Vlad is that the current viable replacements would ultimately be worse.

I think Putin likely already has a vial of Novichok or thallium with Prigozhin's name on it. Or the FSB already dug out a grave for him in some forest outside Moscow. Purges are the Russian way.

If he's really there as reported, that would be Putin's chef.

Yeah, he’s definitely gonna be wearing a pair of uranium-laced TommyJohns later.

The revolt that wasn't is beginning to draw appraisals that posit the whole Wagner v Putin deal had actually been orchestrated propaganda theater. Given Prigozhi's in Russia meeting with Vlad and pledging loyalty, and Wagner's intact and operating in Africa, it would seem increasingly likely. Why, I'd bet the Wag troll farm hasn't been disbanded either.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -flag.html

In the early hours of the incident my few Ukrainian correspondents noted a non-zero chance of the entire thing being ritual kabuki. That assessment has gradually eroded only to be replaced with, well, nothing really except for confusion.

Odd that there should be an absence of speculation but that seems to be the case. It’s seems not only to be taken as neither a good thing nor a bad thing but uncertainty as to even being a thing.

The dumbest guy(s) in Russia seem to be the generals that continue to get killed at an alarming rate. I think Russia has lost over a dozen so far.

Being a Russian general does entail a degree of risk but mostly due to the numerous vectors they have to deal with.

Quite apart from the Ukrainian army there’s dubious cups of tea, spontaneously exploding vehicles, unsafe stairways often in proximity to high windows, smoking in prohibited areas, random assaults on jogging trails and bald caterers. Hell, even commuting to the vacation villa in Crimea isn’t totally risk free.

Thots and prayers.

Hawk wrote: ↑

July 13th 2023, 12:52pm

In the early hours of the incident my few Ukrainian correspondents noted a non-zero chance of the entire thing being ritual kabuki. That assessment has gradually eroded only to be replaced with, well, nothing really except for confusion.

Odd that there should be an absence of speculation but that seems to be the case. It’s seems not only to be taken as neither a good thing nor a bad thing but uncertainty as to even being a thing.

All those machinations - the raid on Prigozhi's residence, seizure of assets, burning out the troll farm, and sew Fourth just to wind up not a thing. Vladd just cain't get anything right, by golly.

Well, Vlad will likely be remembered as the single greatest factor behind NATO expansion. He has breathed life into a previously moribund alliance. Four dimensional chess at its finest.

In other news - now several hours old - colonel Denys Ivanov seems to have met his end in a single-vehicle traffic accident in Luhansk. ‘Course that’s from Russian media so who knows?

Cecil: Those Timekettle translating earbuds actually work. Listening to Russian media had not been on my 2023 bingo card but shit happens.

More rumblings and grumblings from the Russian military leadership but I think Putin's fate rests with the oligarchs. If he has them bought off he's squatting in high cotton but if some oligarch thinks "hey, I can get me one of these generals to take out Putin on a Friday and by Monday, I'm sitting in the Kremlin."

Money talks.

If Putin is gone, the new leader can withdraw from all parts of Ukraine, declare Putin "insane", and beg the West for forgiveness and a renewal of trade and suspension of all sanctions. Money rolls in, people are happy. Corruption and ineptness can continue as before.

Good outline of a best case scenario there.

However my admittedly small and statistically insignificant sample size of Ukrainians aren’t holding out much hope for that sort of thing. It’s as likely a Putin replacement would echo Prigozhin’s sentiment that there’s nothing inherently wrong with invasion if only it were more enthusiastically prosecuted. Navalny’s history offers little improvement.

Prigozhin is yapping about the good old days when Wagner was fucking up Africa but Ukrainians close to the Belarusian border are more apprehensive since the Progozhin / Lukashenko soap opera started.

Personally I’d like to see two or three US carrier battle groups engage in a humanitarian gesture in the Black Sea. A sort of non-confrontational unless fired upon escort for agricultural products. I do tend to stress out over a provoked Putin. My problem is that this stress level is not much mitigated by a non-provoked Putin. I wouldn’t put any bets on anything he’s likely to do irrespective of circumstances. He has demonstrated a talent for inventing provocations from whole cloth. It’s unclear if reality has any impact on his assessments.

Hawk wrote: ↑

July 20th 2023, 11:04am

..It’s unclear if reality has any impact on his assessments.

The reality testing of malignantly narcissistic psychopaths is powerfully attenuated and factors virtually not at all in higher order processes.

As to Vlad's tenure, the ruskie president ultimately serves at the pleasure of the military power structure - any coup to be will arise from them. Money then talks to the pecking order established thereby.

And, Prigozhin in plane crash in Russia.

^^yep. It is my understanding his plane arrived at the crash site right on time.

conjurer wrote: ↑

August 23rd 2023, 10:58am

And, Prigozhin in plane crash in Russia.

That's a shame.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

August 23rd 2023, 4:28pm

conjurer wrote: ↑

August 23rd 2023, 10:58am

And, Prigozhin in plane crash in Russia.

That's a shame.

For what it’s worth (not much) Russian Telegram channels are claiming the plane was shot down by Russian air defense.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, some few are wondering how he beamed himself from Africa to a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg only to fall out of an eighth floor basement window.

While the general consensus in Ukraine is that nobody knows WTF is going on, one thing is clear: this is why you turn off the damn phone on a plane. And enough already with the smoking in prohibited areas.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

August 23rd 2023, 4:28pm

conjurer wrote: ↑

August 23rd 2023, 10:58am

And, Prigozhin in plane crash in Russia.

That's a shame.

Quite so. I pity the devil when these guys start arriving in bunches.