Watchlords

The Robb Report says 2024 will be a better year for buying pre-owned watches but prices for the popular ones are still way up there.

Just how far have prices fallen? According to Morgan Stanley, in 2023, prices on Rolex, Patek, and AP declined by 8 percent, 16 percent, and 18 percent, respectively. (But never fear: In the fourth quarter, secondhand prices on the Big Three still commanded a collective 24.7 percent premium compared with retail prices.)

Now that watches are once again “an interest class as opposed to an asset class,” as Geoff Hess, Sotheby’s head of watches for the Americas puts it, the speculators have left the building.

https://robbreport.com/style/watch-coll ... 235492562/

I wish they would fall a little more!

There are so many watches that I need!

smellody wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 9:36am

I wish they would fall a little more!

There are so many watches that I need!

They will. Been falling for a year or so, but got 2-3 years more to go :-) And maybe even much further than that - how many speculators / chancers who bought fancy watches in the last few years actually love watches and will want to hold on to them? Could be a lot of heavily depreciated Swiss watches for sale in 5 years time.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 4:59pm

smellody wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 9:36am

I wish they would fall a little more!

There are so many watches that I need!

They will. Been falling for a year or so, but got 2-3 years more to go :-) And maybe even much further than that - how many speculators / chancers who bought fancy watches in the last few years actually love watches and will want to hold on to them? Could be a lot of heavily depreciated Swiss watches for sale in 5 years time.

Yes. But you probably know the ones I want. They are coming down.... but they ain't cheap.

I've thought about becoming a jiggalo for some extra cash flow. I mean anything for a buck, right?

smellody wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 8:30pm

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 4:59pm

smellody wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 9:36am

I wish they would fall a little more!

There are so many watches that I need!

They will. Been falling for a year or so, but got 2-3 years more to go :-) And maybe even much further than that - how many speculators / chancers who bought fancy watches in the last few years actually love watches and will want to hold on to them? Could be a lot of heavily depreciated Swiss watches for sale in 5 years time.

Yes. But you probably know the ones I want. They are coming down.... but they ain't cheap.

I've thought about becoming a jiggalo for some extra cash flow. I mean anything for a buck, right?

You might be surprised. The whole hype/flex/LE/manufactured scarcity/flipping the last few years has ruined watches for a bunch of us. Could be plenty of much cheaper watches around again. They weren't worth much at all 30 years ago and everything is cyclical.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 10:39pm

smellody wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 8:30pm

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

February 5th 2024, 4:59pm

They will. Been falling for a year or so, but got 2-3 years more to go :-) And maybe even much further than that - how many speculators / chancers who bought fancy watches in the last few years actually love watches and will want to hold on to them? Could be a lot of heavily depreciated Swiss watches for sale in 5 years time.

Yes. But you probably know the ones I want. They are coming down.... but they ain't cheap.

I've thought about becoming a jiggalo for some extra cash flow. I mean anything for a buck, right?

You might be surpised. The whole hype/flex/LE/manufactured scarcity/flipping the lkast few years has ruined watches for a bunch of us. Could be plenty of much cheaper watches around again. They weren't worth much at all 30 years ago and everything is cyclical.

I remember 2007 very well. There were a whole lot of really smart people who said that we had seen the end of cyclical economic booms and busts. They certainly weren't right about that, the stupid bastards.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the top ten. Perhaps those who drove the watch market to Mars will return to inflating cigars or move into stones.

Watchcharts.com - a great resource with full price reports on about 24 brands- predicts the sky will keep falling since the market was over-heated by flippers, who outnumber true collectors/horologists. Also with Rolex the backlog seems to be easing, which will dampen used pricing. My strategy these days, particularly for Rolex, is to only buy new and avoid the prevailing gray market mark up, which is thousands over OEM pricing. I honestly don't care if I have to wait years for a particular watch - I have 64ish pieces. At some point, too much simply becomes too much.

With Rolex, I'm still in good shape. I've always paid under retail with two noted exceptions.

The 1964 gilt underline pointed crown guard full set. (I paid a lot but, 1/3 of value at time and still well over double what it got it for.)

The Polar Explorer II. I paid about $500 over new, but it was all trade of other than Rolex. So still a push.

I’m not aware of anyone who would buy or sell based on a trend - but there sure were a lot of fucks buying on speculation of value ascension for a given model that was never fully realized. Faux-enthusiast car people and self-proclaimed real estate guru do the same damn thing. It’s annoying to the real aficionados - but, whaddya gonna do when everyone likes to make a buck?

In this thing Conjurer says is ours I believe there are only two rules:
1. Buy what you like;
2. Never pay retail.

Prices and values will continue to ebb and flow like the Pacific…. And sometimes you have to just jump in. 80 degrees is fantastic, 58 degrees is a bit chilly without a wetsuit…. But, regardless - for the lunatic craving a swim the two different circumstances are both invigorating - just different.

It’s nice when they hold value - but make no mistake, watches are not investments: they are jewelry and they toys.