Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

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Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by smellody » March 13th 2022, 12:55pm

I predict that the Swatch Group will exceed any and all sales predictions this year.

They have some fine new offerings that to me are in touch with some of the most desirable and unattainable models from other manufacturers.

The Seamaster, Aqua Terra, Constellation, and other lines super impressive.

Personally, I have three Omega on my wish list. I've also solicited input from my wife on two models that she fancies.

Who agrees or disagrees?
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by iwasbanned » March 13th 2022, 2:34pm

I agree. I had lost that loving feeling for Omega, but I feel it in my loins again. Their last great watch was the PO with the 2500 movement, but I'm feeling the new lines and the constellation is a great distinct design.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 13th 2022, 4:17pm

Omega has established themselves as a bonafide top tier brand with the METAS certified Master Co-Axial movements and their strong anti-magnetic qualities, and as good as the best and better than the rest precision in timekeeping achieved through new proprietary materials, and innovative engineering. Omega has also stepped up their game with proprietary advances in ceramics and metals, liquid metal and bronze gold chiefly among them, and with other new exclusive gold alloys (Sedna, Red...) that offer enhanced color and corrosion resistance.

Omega has become the most advanced mass produced top tier brand in watchmaking, rivaled only by Rolex. Through innovation and faithfulness to iconic designs, and availability (while it lasts), I think the good Dr. is spot on: Omega will reap the rewards of their ingenuity with much improved market share.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by DoctorIvey » March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 13th 2022, 5:41pm

DoctorIvey wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:06pm
Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 14th 2022, 2:30am

jason_recliner wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:41pm
DoctorIvey wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:06pm
Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.
Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 14th 2022, 4:53pm

3Flushes wrote:
March 14th 2022, 2:30am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:41pm
DoctorIvey wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:06pm
Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.
Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.
Even if people still have the money to buy luxury watches, they may be less likely to do so if they perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the next few years may not be as financially buoyant as the last few years. They may prefer to put that $5-10k away, "just in case". Also, I wonder if some people have been buying watches not because they are really excited about them but rather they haven't been able to travel. With borders opening back up this year, maybe some of the disposable income that was being spent on baubles will be redirected to holidays.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 15th 2022, 2:28am

jason_recliner wrote:
March 14th 2022, 4:53pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 14th 2022, 2:30am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:41pm
DoctorIvey wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:06pm
Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.
Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.
Even if people still have the money to buy luxury watches, they may be less likely to do so if they perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the next few years may not be as financially buoyant as the last few years. They may prefer to put that $5-10k away, "just in case". Also, I wonder if some people have been buying watches not because they are really excited about them but rather they haven't been able to travel. With borders opening back up this year, maybe some of the disposable income that was being spent on baubles will be redirected to holidays.
Good points - I 'spose folks may look towards saving in uncertain times - thought never occurred to me as I have very little disposable or savable income. As far as travel, never occurred to me, either. I've gone where I wanted to go and outside of a few roadtrips I'd like to take, I have no desire to go anywhere.

Troubled, interesting times we're living in - I reckon we'll see how they play themselves out.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 15th 2022, 6:53am

3Flushes wrote:
March 15th 2022, 2:28am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 14th 2022, 4:53pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 14th 2022, 2:30am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:41pm
DoctorIvey wrote:
March 13th 2022, 5:06pm
Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.
I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.
Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.
Even if people still have the money to buy luxury watches, they may be less likely to do so if they perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the next few years may not be as financially buoyant as the last few years. They may prefer to put that $5-10k away, "just in case". Also, I wonder if some people have been buying watches not because they are really excited about them but rather they haven't been able to travel. With borders opening back up this year, maybe some of the disposable income that was being spent on baubles will be redirected to holidays.
Good points - I 'spose folks may look towards saving in uncertain times - thought never occurred to me as I have very little disposable or savable income. As far as travel, never occurred to me, either. I've gone where I wanted to go and outside of a few roadtrips I'd like to take, I have no desire to go anywhere.

Troubled, interesting times we're living in - I reckon we'll see how they play themselves out.
Australians with disposable income spend a lot of it on holidays. Being locked in and/or shut off for a couple of years, much of disposable income has been spent on real estate and renovations. But it's also been spent on baubles (cars, watches, bikes, pretty much anything and everything), inflating bauble prices to bubble levels. I think 2022 and 2023 those bubbles are going to if not pop, at least slowly deflate. Real estate to an extent as well, but real estate has intrinsic worth and productivity that baubles do not. Baubles will be impacted hardest IMO.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by boscoe » March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 17th 2022, 7:26pm

3Flushes wrote:
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 18th 2022, 2:07am

jason_recliner wrote:
March 17th 2022, 7:26pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, and cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 18th 2022, 2:22am

3Flushes wrote:
March 18th 2022, 2:07am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 17th 2022, 7:26pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.
Rising interest rates primarily directly impact mortgage payments (for the general populace). Because a significant number of people have significant mortgages, the interest rate rises signficantly decrease (you can see how significant this is!) disposable income (the kind of spare cash that one might spend on a hobby car, holiday, or luxury watch). Furthermore, perception of decreased financial stability and security can further reduce discretionary spending. This is one of the macroeconomic drivers of interest rate rises - get people to spend less and save more, thereby reducing inflation. I'm not sure what you mean by "hedge against inflation".

I don't think sales of gold watches will be hit as hard as steel. A lot of people buy a luxury steel watch because they've got a promotion, or made a big sale, or got a good bonus, or had a good year. All things that are impacted indirectly in many (not all) business sectors by rising interest rates. Many (most?) gold watch buyers are pretty well immune from rising interest rates. They may make a bit less for a few years, they may make a bit more (if they have a lot of savings, for example), but they'll still be rich.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 18th 2022, 3:18pm

jason_recliner wrote:
March 18th 2022, 2:22am
3Flushes wrote:
March 18th 2022, 2:07am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 17th 2022, 7:26pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.
Rising interest rates primarily directly impact mortgage payments (for the general populace). Because a significant number of people have significant mortgages, the interest rate rises signficantly decrease (you can see how significant this is!) disposable income (the kind of spare cash that one might spend on a hobby car, holiday, or luxury watch). Furthermore, perception of decreased financial stability and security can further reduce discretionary spending. This is one of the macroeconomic drivers of interest rate rises - get people to spend less and save more, thereby reducing inflation. I'm not sure what you mean by "hedge against inflation".

I don't think sales of gold watches will be hit as hard as steel. A lot of people buy a luxury steel watch because they've got a promotion, or made a big sale, or got a good bonus, or had a good year. All things that are impacted indirectly in many (not all) business sectors by rising interest rates. Many (most?) gold watch buyers are pretty well immune from rising interest rates. They may make a bit less for a few years, they may make a bit more (if they have a lot of savings, for example), but they'll still be rich.
It seems you're assuming folks will be able to continue to buy - those who have already purchased a home or a car are locked in. Household goods and services, gas, utilities and whatnot will chew into disposable income at the rate of inflation, which in the US, is currently 7.9%. Buyers who fed into the frenzy, buying for fear of being locked out price wise and fear of rising interest rates, could wind up unable to meet their car and mortgage obligations if the trend rises beyond the cushion they reserved while buying in an up market. Those folks and renters (as fewer people buy homes, or in the extreme, folks lose their homes, and rental markets tighten up) will be the most affected by inflation.

Established homeowners who have more friendly payments and several years of equity, and whose incomes have risen over the years while their expenses have remained fairly stable at the rate of cost of living increases won't be too affected by inflation short of hyper rates. Those most hedging their bets are those in the former group, potentially having bitten off more than they could chew in the face of the current economy. Those in the later, more established / stable group, it seems to me, are the larger group of luxury product buyers in general.

It would appear, based on marketing pushes, luxury brands in general are betting on the stability of those who fall into their demographics. I'm merely a spectator.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 18th 2022, 3:25pm

3Flushes wrote:
March 18th 2022, 3:18pm
jason_recliner wrote:
March 18th 2022, 2:22am
3Flushes wrote:
March 18th 2022, 2:07am
jason_recliner wrote:
March 17th 2022, 7:26pm
3Flushes wrote:
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote:
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.
Rising interest rates primarily directly impact mortgage payments (for the general populace). Because a significant number of people have significant mortgages, the interest rate rises signficantly decrease (you can see how significant this is!) disposable income (the kind of spare cash that one might spend on a hobby car, holiday, or luxury watch). Furthermore, perception of decreased financial stability and security can further reduce discretionary spending. This is one of the macroeconomic drivers of interest rate rises - get people to spend less and save more, thereby reducing inflation. I'm not sure what you mean by "hedge against inflation".

I don't think sales of gold watches will be hit as hard as steel. A lot of people buy a luxury steel watch because they've got a promotion, or made a big sale, or got a good bonus, or had a good year. All things that are impacted indirectly in many (not all) business sectors by rising interest rates. Many (most?) gold watch buyers are pretty well immune from rising interest rates. They may make a bit less for a few years, they may make a bit more (if they have a lot of savings, for example), but they'll still be rich.
It seems you're assuming folks will be able to continue to buy - those who have already purchased a home or a car are locked in. Household goods and services, gas, utilities and whatnot will chew into disposable income at the rate of inflation, which in the US, is currently 7.9%. Buyers who fed into the frenzy buying for fear of being locked out price wise and fear of rising interest rates could wind up unable to meet their car and mortgage obligations if the trend rises beyond the cushion they reserved while buying in an up market. Those folks and renters (as fewer people buy homes, or in the extreme, folks lose their homes, and rental markets tighten up) will be the most affected by inflation.

Established homeowners who have more friendly payments and several years of equity, and whose incomes have risen over the years while their expenses have remained fairly stable at the rate of cost of living increases won't be too affected by inflation short of hyper rates. Those most hedging their bets are those in the former group, potentially having bitten off more than they could chew in the face of the current economy. Those in the later, more established / stable group, it seems to me, are the larger group of luxury product buyers in general.

It would appear, based on marketing pushes, luxury brands in general are betting on the stability of those who fall into their demographics.
I forgot USA has fixed rate mortages. Most of the world does not, which is why interest rate adjustment by central banks is such an effective macroeconomic lever.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 18th 2022, 3:26pm

^^^I never knew that --- would suck, indeed.

There is much to consider when considering world wide markets, by golly.

While I think American lux watch sales will remain fairly stable, other world markets, particularly Near and Far Eastern nations will remain strong. Those markets, were after all, the first fully restored by the Crown. But Rolex makes what they make, and according to plan, demand always exceeds supply. So other brands it would seem, stand to increase their marketshare in those geographies as well.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by jason_recliner » March 18th 2022, 4:10pm

3Flushes wrote:
March 18th 2022, 3:26pm
^^^I never knew that --- would suck, indeed.

There is much to consider when considering world wide markets, by golly
Yes, but even in the USA rising rates do slow down the economy and spending. It's more expensive for businesses to borrow. So that money they were going to give you as a raise goes to paying interest instead. And that money somebody was going to spend on a car, or renovation, or holiday, or whatever, or investing in capital, is saved instead because there's a better return on savings now. Meaning less money flowing through the economy, no multiplier effect, and less money in your pocket, regardless of if you have any loans or not. Rising rates cause increased currency value. Good if you are buying an imported product such as a watch. But bad for any company that nrelies on exports, so the effect again is typically less money in the economy, slowing employment, decreased presure on wages growth.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by 3Flushes » March 24th 2022, 2:52pm

From last November---------- It would seem Omega's prestige has indeed climbed to an elite level over the last few years--------
EDIT: The previous record for an Omega was $400,000 for a Speedmaster in 2018.

Omega Speedmaster CK2915-1 Breaks World Record Auction Price At $3.4 Million

The Omega Speedmaster CK2915-1 has officially broken a world record auction price. It was expected to sell for around 80,000 to 120,000 Swiss Franc but instead it fetched an astronomical 3,115,500 CHF ($3.4 million USD).

The auction was for a perfectly aged Speedmaster from 1957, it was among some of the first batches ever made of this reference. This watch was not stored away in pristine condition but rather it was used for many years by its owner. Its long term exposure to the sun during regular everyday use caused the dial to patina into an incredible shade of milk chocolate spread evenly throughout the dial.

Not only did the dial patina in an incredible way, but so did the luminous material used on both the hands and markers turning into a golden almost dijon mustard tone. The contrast between the tropical dial and patina on the hands and markers creates a striking appearance usually only found on vintage watches such as this one.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewcat ... c71432dd02
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by koimaster » March 24th 2022, 3:16pm

For some reason I am beginning to like the speedmaster again, the original. Went to chron24 and you can tell the US sellers are really putting the profit margins in. Japan and euro dealers are cheaper for the watch and full kit by almost $1k
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by koimaster » March 24th 2022, 3:32pm

boscoe wrote:
March 24th 2022, 3:23pm
I always lusted after the speedmaster, too. Is, no pun intended, a timeless design.
But as my eyes get weaker, particularly without glasses, I can't read the damn thing anymore. So off the list.
I'm down to three-hands now - and only the big ones count.

John will tell you you only need one hand and a table leg.
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Re: Prediction: Omega to mop up sales in 2022

Post by DoctorIvey » March 24th 2022, 6:13pm

boscoe wrote:
March 24th 2022, 3:23pm
I always lusted after the speedmaster, too. Is, no pun intended, a timeless design.
But as my eyes get weaker, particularly without glasses, I can't read the damn thing anymore. So off the list.
I'm down to three-hands now - and only the big ones count.
Me exactly.
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