jason_recliner wrote: ↑
March 17th 2022, 7:26pm
3Flushes wrote: ↑
March 17th 2022, 6:10pm
boscoe wrote: ↑
March 16th 2022, 4:15pm
Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.
The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.
So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.
The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.
It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.
I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.
It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, and cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.
Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.
I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.