Watchlords

DoctorIvey wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:41pm

DoctorIvey wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.

I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 14th 2022, 2:30am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:41pm

DoctorIvey wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.

I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.

Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 14th 2022, 4:53pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 14th 2022, 2:30am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:41pm

DoctorIvey wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.

I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.

Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.

Even if people still have the money to buy luxury watches, they may be less likely to do so if they perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the next few years may not be as financially buoyant as the last few years. They may prefer to put that $5-10k away, "just in case". Also, I wonder if some people have been buying watches not because they are really excited about them but rather they haven't been able to travel. With borders opening back up this year, maybe some of the disposable income that was being spent on baubles will be redirected to holidays.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 15th 2022, 2:28am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 14th 2022, 4:53pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 14th 2022, 2:30am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:41pm

DoctorIvey wrote: ↑

March 13th 2022, 5:06pm

Are we talking Omega or Swatch group? Because there’s a lot more to the latter than the former. As to how they’ll do this year, I don’t know. I see hard times coming. But that often doesn’t deter luxury purchases. If I had to guess though, I’d say a tough year for Omega, I do not base this on perceived shortcomings in their new products, but instead on inflation. That’s assuming, however, that regular folk buy Omega. If genuinely wealthy people move the needle (I would define this as those with at least 10M US dollars) they could do great.

I tend to agree. Interest rates will be rising. House prices already fell in Sydney for the first time in years. Not sure it will be a booming market for watches (or baubles more generally) like the last few years.

Stainless steel watches, the best sellers now, will remain so. No-one has been knocking themselves out to buy gold or platinum watches. Those folks who can afford gold watches or jewelry, and stones now, will continue to be able to buy them. I don't think it will take 10 mil for folks who are primarily stainless watch buyers to continue to buy watches.

Omega's stainless steel lineup of stalwarts account for the great majority of their sales, with the addition of Bronze Gold giving Omega a comparatively economical alternative to stainless; I imagine some new Bronze Gold models will be released this year further expanding Omega's market share.

SWATCH has gone to great lengths to bump Omega up the chain internally and in the marketplace while solidifying the position of mid-line brands Mido, Tissot, Certina, and Hamilton with updated designs and technology. The Powermatic 80 (C07.XXX) lineup of movements are prominently featured throughout the SWATCH mid-line. The .811 features a silicon regulation system and is utilized in select models. So SWATCH seems well positioned overall to weather the storm.

It seems to me that Omega's (and other brands) greatest risk of attrition is customers who over extended their credit to buy who will need it for household goods and services, and whatnot.

Even if people still have the money to buy luxury watches, they may be less likely to do so if they perceive, rightly or wrongly, that the next few years may not be as financially buoyant as the last few years. They may prefer to put that $5-10k away, "just in case". Also, I wonder if some people have been buying watches not because they are really excited about them but rather they haven't been able to travel. With borders opening back up this year, maybe some of the disposable income that was being spent on baubles will be redirected to holidays.

Good points - I 'spose folks may look towards saving in uncertain times - thought never occurred to me as I have very little disposable or savable income. As far as travel, never occurred to me, either. I've gone where I wanted to go and outside of a few roadtrips I'd like to take, I have no desire to go anywhere.

Troubled, interesting times we're living in - I reckon we'll see how they play themselves out.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 15th 2022, 6:53am

Baubles will be impacted hardest IMO.

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 7:26pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.

It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 2:07am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 7:26pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.

It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.

I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 2:22am

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 2:07am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 7:26pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.

It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.

I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.

Rising interest rates primarily directly impact mortgage payments (for the general populace). Because a significant number of people have significant mortgages, the interest rate rises signficantly decrease (you can see how significant this is!) disposable income (the kind of spare cash that one might spend on a hobby car, holiday, or luxury watch). Furthermore, perception of decreased financial stability and security can further reduce discretionary spending. This is one of the macroeconomic drivers of interest rate rises - get people to spend less and save more, thereby reducing inflation. I'm not sure what you mean by "hedge against inflation".

I don't think sales of gold watches will be hit as hard as steel. A lot of people buy a luxury steel watch because they've got a promotion, or made a big sale, or got a good bonus, or had a good year. All things that are impacted indirectly in many (not all) business sectors by rising interest rates. Many (most?) gold watch buyers are pretty well immune from rising interest rates. They may make a bit less for a few years, they may make a bit more (if they have a lot of savings, for example), but they'll still be rich.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 3:18pm

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 2:22am

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 2:07am

jason_recliner wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 7:26pm

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 17th 2022, 6:10pm

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 16th 2022, 4:15pm

Agree inflation will hurt sales. Hopefully will drive down prices, too.
But to original post, Omega ain't gonna conquer the world.
Simply doesn't have the cachet and I say this as a guy who used to favor Omega over Rolex.
Do make some great watches, though, and like the new lineup. But personally, not in the market. Rolex only these days.

The Crown's market share is fixed at their annual production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 watches, or whatever the actual numbers (which I suspect are higher), a constant, if you will. Increased scarcity has changed nothing for Rolex other than the overall exclusivity (the pinnacle of a luxury brand) of the demographic those watches are available to based on the whims of authorized dealers. In the process, Rolex has alienated a segment of former customers who are either pissed off or locked out, a portion of whom will migrate to other brands, IMO, primarily to Omega.

So while Omega stands to pick up some Rolex customers, their largest gains in market share stand to come from their own groundbreaking advances; COSC/METAS certified co-axial movements, amongst the most accurate and magnetic shielded movements in the industry, exclusive metals and ceramic material, and innovative and updated new releases promoted by an aggressive, polished marketing campaign. And Omega is available - in stock, at more palatable price points, as Omega continues to elevate their own heritage and distinction.

The impact of inflation on luxury goods remains to be seen. Historically, luxury markets tend to be the least affected, although the pandemic is certainly a potentially confounding economic variable. I reckon we'll just have to wait and see how the world's economies behave.

It will be the impact of lower inflation - i.e. higher interest rates - that will impact luxury watch sales IMO.

I thought more about travel and it seems folks are still rather timid, especially about international travel - being stuck somewhere in quarantine and whatnot seems to be a strong barrier as new variants of concern begin to emerge followed by renewed restrictions in the Far East and EU.

It seems that rising interest rates will primarily impact real estate as the price of houses and new construction continues to rise, ultimately pricing out those who would currently qualify, cars, as rising interest rates inflate payments., gas and utilities, and growth stocks. Based on what I've read, markets will be more volatile overall commensurate with inflation if it rises to hyper levels, even impacting value stocks, which tend to fare better during periods of high inflation, and commodities.

Bauble buyers who didn't extend their credit to buy won't likely be too affected by bubbles, or by them bursting. As I think about it, a hedge against inflation may be part of the reason that Rolex is all to happy to have their demographic shifting to more affluent buyers. Omega has taken to developing more Bronze Gold models and more heavily advertising gold watches made with their other exclusive precious gold alloys; Canopus (white), Sedna (Rose), Moonshine (yellow), and Ceragold, which is the first gold alloy that can be used with ceramic materials.

I still think stainless steel watches will be the pillar of the lux watch market, but economics and marketing weren't my major, so what the fuck do I know. I reckon I just have to wait and see how things play themselves out like everybody else.

Rising interest rates primarily directly impact mortgage payments (for the general populace). Because a significant number of people have significant mortgages, the interest rate rises signficantly decrease (you can see how significant this is!) disposable income (the kind of spare cash that one might spend on a hobby car, holiday, or luxury watch). Furthermore, perception of decreased financial stability and security can further reduce discretionary spending. This is one of the macroeconomic drivers of interest rate rises - get people to spend less and save more, thereby reducing inflation. I'm not sure what you mean by "hedge against inflation".

I don't think sales of gold watches will be hit as hard as steel. A lot of people buy a luxury steel watch because they've got a promotion, or made a big sale, or got a good bonus, or had a good year. All things that are impacted indirectly in many (not all) business sectors by rising interest rates. Many (most?) gold watch buyers are pretty well immune from rising interest rates. They may make a bit less for a few years, they may make a bit more (if they have a lot of savings, for example), but they'll still be rich.

It seems you're assuming folks will be able to continue to buy - those who have already purchased a home or a car are locked in. Household goods and services, gas, utilities and whatnot will chew into disposable income at the rate of inflation, which in the US, is currently 7.9%. Buyers who fed into the frenzy buying for fear of being locked out price wise and fear of rising interest rates could wind up unable to meet their car and mortgage obligations if the trend rises beyond the cushion they reserved while buying in an up market. Those folks and renters (as fewer people buy homes, or in the extreme, folks lose their homes, and rental markets tighten up) will be the most affected by inflation.

Established homeowners who have more friendly payments and several years of equity, and whose incomes have risen over the years while their expenses have remained fairly stable at the rate of cost of living increases won't be too affected by inflation short of hyper rates. Those most hedging their bets are those in the former group, potentially having bitten off more than they could chew in the face of the current economy. Those in the later, more established / stable group, it seems to me, are the larger group of luxury product buyers in general.

It would appear, based on marketing pushes, luxury brands in general are betting on the stability of those who fall into their demographics.

3Flushes wrote: ↑

March 18th 2022, 3:26pm

^^^I never knew that --- would suck, indeed.

There is much to consider when considering world wide markets, by golly

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 24th 2022, 3:23pm

I always lusted after the speedmaster, too. Is, no pun intended, a timeless design.
But as my eyes get weaker, particularly without glasses, I can't read the damn thing anymore. So off the list.
I'm down to three-hands now - and only the big ones count.

boscoe wrote: ↑

March 24th 2022, 3:23pm

I always lusted after the speedmaster, too. Is, no pun intended, a timeless design.
But as my eyes get weaker, particularly without glasses, I can't read the damn thing anymore. So off the list.
I'm down to three-hands now - and only the big ones count.